Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

850
FXUS63 KFGF 040439
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler to start the week with highs in the 40s and 50s before
  60s and 70s return Thursday onwards.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Winds have decreased with sunset and while it is still mild
ahead of the approaching cold front temperatures have fallen
enough that RH values are now above 25% decreasing the fire
weather impacts. The Red Flag Warning was expired as scheduled.

The band of high based showers ahead of the approaching cold
front have amounted to very little additional precipitation.
The main DCAPE axis has been to the west, with low levels
stabilizing. So, while there had been stronger gusts with some
showers (and a few thunderstorms to the west and north) this
threat has not translated into our northern CWA. Considering
the very dry sub cloud mixed layer ahead of the main front I
won`t rule out a gust to around 40 mph with any stronger
showers, but confidence is low in widespread impacts at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...Synopsis...

A shortwave will dig around Hudson Bay troughing this evening
into eastern North Dakota/Minnesota with a cold front dropping
temps from todays 70s to 40s and 50s for Monday highs. Tuesday
will the cold day of the week with highs only in the 40s as the
core of the 700mb air moves overhead with temps in the -16 to
-18C range (basically arctic by May standards). Could see
showers linger behind the front Monday and Tuesday but
accumulations will be minimal if any. Riding then starts to
build back in through the remainder of the week with highs
slowly climbing back into the 50s and 60s by Thur/Fri and even
some 70s by next weekend in the south. With these increasing
temps will once again come the chance for near critical to
critical fire weather but with a lack of signal from HDWI and
ongoing green-up for most will not focus on that too much just
yet.

-Current Red Flag/SPS

Early day concerns about a deeply mixed boundary layer with
winds being efficiently transported to the surface leading to
more widespread red flag conditions are being quelled. Winds
east of the ND/MN state border are remaining manageable at 10-15
mph with gusts occasionally over 20 mph (RH does remain and
widely 22-27%) so SPS seems to be reasonable. Further west
across ND RH is similar, though winds are slightly stronger at
15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Overall this is currently
marginal RFW conditions for ND but as RH drops another 3-5
points to near 20% this afternoon RFW will become an
increasingly correct decision.

- Rain tonight

As a cold front rolls south tonight a few showers are expected
though they will have to overcome the preceding deeply mixed and
dry boundary layer. Despite this dry air hindrance hi-res
ensembles like the HREF and RRFS both show high probs for areas
from Hallock to the Red Lakes to see > 0.10". Most areas outside
this will only see a shower or two and maybe a couple
hundredths from them. Overall while it will be a "wetting rain"
it wont do much to quell fire weather concerns later in the
week.

Additional chances for critical fire weather conditions arise
later this week. Persistent northwesterly flow continues to
contribute to downsloping and dry airmasses over our region, so
days with increasing temperatures will bring an increased risk
for critical fire conditions. The main question marks will be
wind speeds which do appear likely to meet thresholds of concern
for fire late next week with fuel status also remaining
critical. ERC percentiles are still largely high though HRB is
beginning to respond to green-up so fire spread may become
inhibited. At this time, Thursday and Friday appear to have the
greatest likelihood for critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the TAF period
across eastern ND, with better chances for MVFR ceilings during
the Monday morning hours across northwest MN. A cold front is
currently moving through the region with high based light
showers and shifting winds from the southwest to north-
northwest. Winds speeds will vary, with a period of stronger
gusts around 30kt immediately behind the front, dropping off
before sunrise, before increasing from the northwest through
Monday afternoon. VFR conditions and decreasing northwest winds
(below 12kt) are expected Monday evening across the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...DJR