Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

900
FXUS63 KFGF 112117
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
417 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend into next
  week. This will greatly erode existing snowpack. Snowmelt and
  potential for upcoming precipitation brings a medium chance
  for minor riverine flooding.

- Unsettled weather pattern starts today lasting into next week,
  bringing chances for precipitation, and perhaps a few
  thunderstorms. There is also a 30 percent chance for advisory
  level winter impacts next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper troughing over the Intermountain West is viewable on water
vapor imagery this afternoon, and will deepen into the north-
central tier of the CONUS. This is helping draw up higher
moisture content from the south, while also increasing synoptic
forcing for ascent, especially with one or more shortwave
troughs moving into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest this
evening and Sunday. The increase in low level moisture and
increased forcing aloft will continue light rain/drizzle tonight
into Sunday. The previous signal for thunderstorms into our area
Sunday has trended downward, with most forcing for ascent to
overcoming likely capping displaced from our area to the south
and east.

This begins a relatively lengthy period of southwesterly/quasi-
zonal flow aloft, promoting a more unsettled weather pattern.
Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this upper
regime, although there remain some uncertainty in exactly how
each of these shortwave troughs evolve. This includes potential
for accumulating snow and potential winter impacts. More
details on this can be found below.

Ahead of the upper troughing and attendant surface low pressure
will be well above average temperatures aloft. This will
translate over our area bringing above average temperatures
Sunday with high temperatures forecast as high as the 60s and
70s. There will be additional periods of similar temperatures
later this week, while staying well above freezing through at
least Thursday.

The combination of lengthy well above freezing temperatures and
upcoming precipitation chances will contribute to chance for
minor riverine flooding for a few tributaries in Minnesota. More
details on this below.

...Unsettled weather pattern ahead...

Ensembles continue to agree in the upper pattern remaining in
this southwesterly and quasi-zonal flow regime through at least
the end of the work week. While ensembles have some
disagreement in synoptic evolution of shortwave troughs, there
are a few periods of note that increase our relative chances for
precipitation. These periods are tonight into Sunday, Tuesday,
and late next work week.

For tonight/Sunday, there is a noteworthy amount of warm air in
the mid layers effectively capping much available instability
for more robust convection. Additionally, strongest low/mid
level forcing for ascent to potentially overcome capping will
remain displaced to the south and east of our area. Thus,
expecting mainly scattered showers with perhaps some embedded
thunder forced by vorticity advection from the heart of the
shortwave trough itself.

There is still expectation of subsequent shortwave troughs to
bring their own waves of instability within their warm sectors,
but still more likely to be largely displaced from our area.
However, convection fed by this warm sector may be within our
area, introducing thunderstorms into the forecast.

Most ensemble guidance generally agrees that more significant
precipitation amounts over 2 inches will remain well to our
east within eastern MN into WI. Still, there is a low to medium
chance for 1-2 inches within Minnesota and locations north of
US Highway 2 by end of the work week.

The late week shortwave trough passage may feature cold enough
air for some of its precipitation to be snow, of which may be
enough to accumulate. As we inch closer to this period, ensemble
guidance is starting to cluster toward a scenario that features
heavy snow in the eventual system`s deformation zone. This could
overspread portions of our area, including accumulating snow
more than 6 inches. This may also coincide with gusty winds to
introduce impacts from blowing snow into this scenario.

While there is the potential for warning level impacts from
accumulating snow of 6 or more inches and blowing snow, details
on placement and timing remain very much unknown. This keeps
chance for warning impacts around 10%, with chance for advisory
impacts around 30% at this time.

...Warm temperatures and eroding snowpack brings chance for
riverine flooding...

Due to the extended period of well above freezing temperatures
over the next several days, confidence for a greatly eroding
snowpack is high. There remains widespread frozen and/or
saturated soils, with several areas still seeing standing water
in open fields (as seen from webcams and satellite imagery).
This lends confidence that existing water content within the
snowpack will largely runoff into rivers/tributaries.

The current water content within the snowpack isn`t overly
high (up to 1.2 inches), and alone will likely not push
rivers/tributaries into flood stage. However, the combination of
this occuring with upcoming chances for additional
precipitation introduce a medium chance for minor riverine
flooding. Additionally, phasing of snowmelt-driven increased
flow within tributaries and main stem Red River may phase with
each other in the central Red River Valley.

For these reasons, additional river flood watches have been
issued.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

High confidence in impacts to aviation this TAF period, mainly
from very low ceilings, gusty winds, and fog reducing
visibility.

Ceilings in the MVFR, IFR, and eventually LIFR to VLIFR are
forecast at all sites. There is high confidence in LIFR to VLIFR
ceilings starting around 00Z at all sites, with sites like KDVL,
KBJI, and KFAR most liable to remain in VLIFR ceilings for an
extended period of time. This will continue through the
overnight and Sunday morning, before ceilings erode from south
to north Sunday afternoon after this TAF period. Light rain
showers and drizzle will accompany lowered ceilings, as well.

There is also a high confidence signal for fog to develop over
most of the area, including potential for dense fog resulting in
1/4SM visibility between 03Z-15Z, potentially lingering longer
at sites like KTVF and/or KBJI. While there is high confidence
in fog, there is lowered confidence in exactly when visibility
drops below 1SM. Thus, 1SM BR has been added to TAFs to denote
period when dense fog may develop.

Gusty southeast winds 20-30kt will continue through the
afternoon before gradually diminishing to around 10kt by 04Z.
LLWS is also forecast at sites within Minnesota. Winds will
shift more westerly after 15Z Sunday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ