Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

980
FXUS63 KFGF 060846
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
346 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Band of showers & t-storms along a cold front moving thru E ND
  and NW MN Saturday mid and late aftn/early evening may bring
  isolated severe wind gusts. Level 1 out of 5 severe risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...Synopsis...

Broad 700/500 mb short wave moving thru central ND/SD at 08z. An
area of mid level moisture and light rain continues to move
east-northeast from northeast SD thru central MN, brushing the
far southern parts of the fcstd area. Anticipate the main wave
moves east by 15z with rain chances diminishing, but conitnued
mid level moisture across the far southern parts of the fcst
area may continue to bring a few showers. Otherwise much drier
airmass in place and a good deal of sun anticipated Fargo to
Bemidji and north. There is increased smoke aloft over much of
the area today into parts of tonight....with sfc smoke over far
northwest MN this morning, but that does move out later this
aftn as upper flow becomes more southwest ahead of the larger
500 mb low that will be moving southeast thru central Canada.

Expect to see highs today pretty similar to Thursday in many
areas....though in the far south where less rain today vs
Thursday afternoon a bit warmer. Highs upper 70s north valley to
low 70s far southeast ND/west central MN.

...Saturday afternoon/evening storms...


The main focus for the weekend is the 500 mb low that will
develop over the Yukon today and drop southeast toward Winnipeg
Sunday afternoon. As upper low drop southeast a surface cold
front will also move southeast as surface low remains north of
the border. This cold front will move into Devils Lake area 21z
or so and reach far NW MN and E ND 23-01z period. Models in
general agreement with this. Thunderstorms do look to form in a
line with the front. Now to what strength they will be, there
are many questions. Considering time of the year and time of
day...instability and low level moisture advection into the
easterrn ND is quite limited....MU CAPES sub 1000 j/kg and dew
pts in the 50s. What seems to be the most likely scenario is
wind. With any storms along the front, wind potential for gusts
to 60 mph is the main threat, esp southern parts of line south
of Devils Lake. The position of a 60 kt 500 mb jet at 500 mb
coming around the low which at that time will be Saskatchewan
will iminge upon the front. 700 mb winds 40kts. Soundings show
convection high based...moist layer around 800 mb so potential
is there for strong wind gusts to mix down to the surface.

After Saturday...


That band sweeps east quickly....then drying comes in with west
winds, followed by cooler, moist airmass that will drop
southeast around the upper low into NE ND/NW MN Sunday
aftn/night and gradually exists Monday.

Thursday period of next week will bring the next chance for any
organized thunderstorms. That period from mid to late next week
into the following week in mid June does show ingredients
there for higher instability with warmer temps and higher low
level moisture as upper ridge builds over the Plains and puts
area in a west-southwest flow aloft.





&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Becoming a little less certain lately is smoke will move far
enough south to impact BJI and TVF tonight but overall decided
threat was low enough to leave it out. Rain continues to fall at
FAR and BJI though VIS > 6 means minimal impacts. Winds light
and Variable tonight becoming SW to SE across the area by late
morning (15z to 18z) with gusts up to 20kts in the DVL area
otherwise sustained winds near 10kts for the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...TT